Root Cause Analysis Methods:
Five Whys Technique (Enhanced):
- Ask "Why?" five times to dig deeper into causes
- Document each level of analysis
- Look for multiple causal chains
- Verify root causes with data
- Address root causes, not just symptoms
Fishbone Diagram (Ishikawa):
- Categories: People, Process, Equipment, Materials, Environment, Management
- Brainstorm Causes: For each category, identify potential causes
- Drill Down: Ask "Why?" for each potential cause
- Prioritize: Focus on most likely and impactful causes
- Verify: Test hypotheses with data and observation
Fault Tree Analysis:
- Start with the undesired event at the top
- Work backwards to identify all possible causes
- Use logical gates (AND, OR) to show relationships
- Calculate probabilities for different failure modes
- Focus prevention efforts on highest-risk paths
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty:
Scenario Planning:
- Develop multiple plausible future scenarios
- Identify key uncertainties and driving forces
- Create strategies that work across scenarios
- Monitor indicators to detect which scenario is emerging
- Adapt strategies as new information becomes available
Monte Carlo Simulation:
- Model uncertain variables with probability distributions
- Run thousands of simulations with random inputs
- Analyze the distribution of outcomes
- Identify key risk factors and sensitivities
- Make decisions based on probability of success
Real Options Analysis:
- Value the flexibility to make future decisions
- Identify decision points and alternatives
- Calculate the value of waiting for more information
- Consider the cost of maintaining options
- Make staged investments to preserve flexibility