Confirmation Bias (Detailed Analysis):
- Definition: Seeking information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence
- Examples:
- Only reading news sources that align with your political views
- Googling "evidence that supports my theory" instead of "evidence against my theory"
- Remembering hits and forgetting misses when evaluating predictions
- Countermeasures:
- Actively seek disconfirming evidence
- Use the "Consider the Opposite" technique
- Engage with intelligent people who disagree with you
- Keep a "belief revision journal"
Availability Heuristic (In-Depth Understanding):
- Definition: Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind
- Examples:
- Overestimating airplane crash risk after seeing news coverage
- Thinking certain names are more common because you know more people with those names
- Overestimating crime rates in areas with high media coverage
- Countermeasures:
- Look up actual statistics and base rates
- Consider what might make examples more or less memorable
- Use systematic data collection rather than anecdotal evidence
- Ask "What am I not seeing or remembering?"
Anchoring Bias (Advanced Applications):
- Definition: Over-relying on the first piece of information encountered
- Examples:
- Salary negotiations starting from initial offer
- Price estimates influenced by suggested retail prices
- Judicial sentencing influenced by prosecutor recommendations
- Countermeasures:
- Generate multiple reference points before making estimates
- Research typical ranges before negotiations
- Use structured decision-making processes
- Deliberately consider extreme alternatives
Additional Critical Biases:
Dunning-Kruger Effect:
- Pattern: Incompetent people overestimate their abilities
- Recognition: Notice when confidence exceeds actual knowledge
- Counter: Regularly test your knowledge and seek expert feedback
Sunk Cost Fallacy:
- Pattern: Continuing poor decisions because of past investment
- Recognition: Ask "What would I do if starting fresh?"
- Counter: Focus on future costs and benefits, ignore past investments
Survivorship Bias:
- Pattern: Focusing on successes while ignoring failures
- Recognition: Ask "What am I not seeing?"
- Counter: Actively seek data on failures and non-survivors