Goal: Distinguish between fleeting fads and trends with lasting business potential using systematic evaluation criteria
Create your SCALE evaluation template: Build a scoring system to rate each trend
- Open your trend tracking spreadsheet and add these column headers: "S-Score", "C-Score", "A-Score", "L-Score", "E-Score", "Total SCALE Score"
- Set up a 1-10 rating scale for each SCALE criterion (detailed below)
- Add conditional formatting: Red (10-30), Yellow (31-40), Green (41-50)
- Expected result: You have a standardized scoring framework ready to use
Apply the SCALE framework to each trend: Rate every trend using these five criteria
- S - Sustainability: Does this trend align with long-term environmental/social values? (Rate 1-10)
- C - Consumer Adoption: Are people actually changing behavior, not just talking about it? (Rate 1-10)
- A - Alignment: Does this fit with existing infrastructure and business models? (Rate 1-10)
- L - Longevity: Is this driven by demographic shifts or lasting technology changes? (Rate 1-10)
- E - Economics: Is there clear profit potential and willingness to pay? (Rate 1-10)
- Expected result: Each trend has five individual scores and a total SCALE score out of 50
Set your sticky trend threshold: Establish minimum scores for further investigation
- Mark trends scoring 35+ as "High Potential" (worth deeper research)
- Mark trends scoring 25-34 as "Monitor" (track but don't act yet)
- Mark trends scoring below 25 as "Fad Risk" (likely temporary)
- Expected result: Your trends are categorized into three clear action buckets
Validate with the "Three-Year Test": Apply this final filter to high-scoring trends
- Ask: "Will this trend still matter in three years?"
- Ask: "Is this driven by a fundamental shift (technology, demographics, regulation)?"
- Ask: "Can I name three different ways to build a business around this?"
- Expected result: Only trends passing all three questions advance to market validation
If most trends score low: You may be tracking surface-level fads - focus on deeper structural changes in society and technology
If you can't score a trend objectively: You need more data - return to your monitoring system for additional research
If everything scores high: Tighten your criteria - sticky trends should be rare and valuable, not common
You'll know you're done when: You can quickly categorize trends as "sticky" or "fleeting" using objective criteria
- You have SCALE scores for at least 10 trends from your monitoring system
- You can identify 2-3 "High Potential" trends that scored 35+ points
- You can explain why a trend scored high or low using specific SCALE criteria
- You have a "watch list" of 3-5 trends worth deeper market validation
Ready for next step? You now have qualified trend candidates - next you'll verify they have real market demand and growth potential.