Step 3: Conduct Deep Market Validation

Goal: Verify that identified trends have real market demand and growth potential using quantitative validation methods

1. Calculate Total Addressable Market (TAM): Determine the market size for each high-potential trend

   • Search "[trend name] market size 2024" and "[trend name] market forecast 2027" in Google
   • Use IBISWorld, Statista, or Grand View Research for industry reports (many have free summaries)
   • Record: Current market size, projected growth rate, and total addressable market by 2027
   • Expected result: You have concrete market size data for each trend (e.g., "AI market: $150B current, 37% CAGR, $740B by 2030")

2. Analyze search demand and interest: Validate consumer interest using search data

   • Go to Google Trends and enter keywords related to your trend
   • Set timeframe to "Past 5 years" and check if interest is rising, stable, or declining
   • Note seasonal patterns and geographic concentration of interest
   • Use Keyword Planner (ads.google.com) to find monthly search volumes for related terms
   • Expected result: You can see if people are actively searching for trend-related solutions

3. Map the competitive landscape: Identify who's already serving this market

   • Search "[trend name] companies" and "[trend name] startups" to find existing players
   • Check Crunchbase.com for funding data - how much money is flowing into this space?
   • Analyze competitor websites: What are they charging? How are they positioning themselves?
   • Look for gaps: What customer segments or use cases are underserved?
   • Expected result: You have a list of 5-10 competitors with their positioning and pricing

4. Test willingness to pay: Validate that customers will actually spend money

   • Create a simple landing page describing a trend-related solution (use Carrd.co or similar)
   • Run a small Facebook/Google ad campaign ($50-100) targeting your audience
   • Track click-through rates and email signups as demand indicators
   • Survey your network: "Would you pay $X for a solution that does Y?"
   • Expected result: You have data on customer interest and price sensitivity

5. Gather social proof and validation: Look for evidence of real adoption

   • Search LinkedIn for job postings related to your trend - are companies hiring for this?
   • Check Reddit, Twitter, and industry forums for discussions about the trend
   • Look for case studies, success stories, and user testimonials
   • Count mentions in major business publications over the past 6 months
   • Expected result: You can point to concrete evidence that businesses/consumers are adopting this trend

If market size data is unavailable: Look for adjacent markets and estimate based on penetration rates or similar trends
If search volume is low: Check if you're using the right keywords - try industry jargon vs. consumer terms
If there are too many competitors: Look for underserved niches or geographic markets with less competition

You'll know you're done when: You have quantitative data supporting the business viability of your top 3 trends

• You can state the market size and growth rate for each trend with specific numbers
• You have search volume data showing rising or stable interest over time
• You've identified 3-5 key competitors and understand their positioning/pricing
• You have evidence that customers are willing to pay for trend-related solutions
• You can point to at least 5 pieces of social proof (job postings, articles, discussions) from the past 6 months

Ready for next step? You now have market-validated trends - next you'll determine which ones align best with your capabilities and offer the highest ROI.