Goal: Determine which trends align best with your capabilities and offer the highest ROI potential using systematic evaluation
Map your core competencies: Create an honest inventory of your business strengths
- List your top 5 skills, resources, or assets (e.g., "strong in digital marketing", "10 years healthcare experience", "$50K available capital")
- Rate each competency from 1-10 compared to competitors in your field
- Identify your unique advantages - what can you do that others can't or won't?
- Note your key limitations - skills, resources, or connections you lack
- Expected result: You have a clear competency profile with strengths, ratings, and gaps identified
Score strategic alignment for each trend: Rate how well each trend matches your capabilities
- Create columns in your spreadsheet: "Skill Match", "Resource Fit", "Experience Relevance", "Network Access"
- Rate each trend 1-10 on how well it aligns with your competencies
- Calculate an average "Strategic Fit Score" for each trend
- Highlight trends scoring 7+ as "High Alignment" opportunities
- Expected result: You can rank trends by how well they match your existing strengths
Calculate opportunity size using the 3-Factor Model: Estimate potential revenue for each trend
- Factor 1 - Market Size: Use your TAM data from Step 3 (larger = higher score)
- Factor 2 - Your Potential Share: Estimate what % of market you could realistically capture in 3 years (0.1% to 5%)
- Factor 3 - Revenue Per Customer: Research average customer value in this space
- Formula: (Market Size × Your Share × Revenue Per Customer) = Opportunity Size
- Expected result: You have estimated 3-year revenue potential for each trend
Assess investment requirements: Calculate what it would cost to pursue each opportunity
- Research typical startup costs for businesses in this trend area
- Factor in: Technology needs, marketing budget, hiring requirements, regulatory costs
- Estimate time to first revenue (3 months, 6 months, 12+ months?)
- Calculate ROI: (Opportunity Size - Investment) ÷ Investment × 100
- Expected result: You know the investment required and potential ROI for each trend
Create your opportunity ranking matrix: Combine all factors into a final score
- Weight your criteria: Strategic Fit (30%), Opportunity Size (40%), ROI (30%)
- Calculate weighted scores for each trend
- Rank trends from highest to lowest total score
- Identify your top 3 opportunities for action planning
- Expected result: You have a ranked list of trends with clear winners for further development
If all trends score low on strategic fit: Look for adjacent opportunities or consider partnership strategies to fill capability gaps
If opportunity sizes seem unrealistic: Reduce your market share estimates - it's better to be conservative and exceed expectations
If ROI calculations are negative: Consider longer time horizons or look for ways to reduce initial investment through MVP approaches
You'll know you're done when: You have a ranked list of trends with clear opportunity sizing and strategic fit scores
- You can name your top 3 core competencies and rate them objectively
- Each validated trend has a Strategic Fit Score and you know why it scored that way
- You have estimated 3-year revenue potential for your top trends using the 3-Factor Model
- You know the investment required and timeline to first revenue for each opportunity
- You have a final ranked list with your #1 trend opportunity clearly identified
Ready for next step? You now know which trends offer the best risk-adjusted returns - next you'll create actionable business plans to capitalize on them.